As hopes of regime change in Iran fade, Netanyahu faces political test

March 13, 2026

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and military leaders are attempting to portray their recent military campaign against Iran as a transformative achievement for the Middle East, despite falling short of the regime change Netanyahu has long championed. After assassinating Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and conducting extensive bombing campaigns, Netanyahu now suggests the war may conclude with Iran's regime still intact, arguing that the balance of power has already shifted in Israel's favor. This marks a potential shift from his earlier grandiose rhetoric about "total victory" and raises questions about how long before renewed conflict emerges without fundamental change in Tehran.

Who is affected

Benjamin Netanyahu and his political standing
Israeli citizens and military personnel
Iranian regime and Revolutionary Guard (including reported desertions)
Hamas in Gaza (still controlling roughly half the territory)
Hezbollah forces in Lebanon
Lebanese civilians in southern Lebanon
US government facing pressure from spiraling oil prices
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (assassinated)
Regional populations across the Middle East

What action is being taken

Israel is conducting bombing campaigns against Iran's weapons production sites, leadership, missile stocks and launchers
Israeli forces are pushing into southern Lebanon in what they describe as a defensive operation
Israel is fighting on multiple fronts simultaneously against Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza
The US is participating alongside Israeli forces in the war against Iran
Military officials are monitoring for signs of strain within Iran's security apparatus

Why it matters

This conflict represents a potential turning point in Middle Eastern geopolitics, with Israel engaging in direct warfare against Iran rather than proxy conflicts. The outcome will determine whether Israel can achieve long-term security without regime change in Tehran, or whether this represents merely a temporary setback for Iranian capabilities that will inevitably rebuild. Netanyahu's political legacy and Israel's defense strategy for the coming generation hang in the balance, particularly given the unresolved nature of conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah despite years of military campaigns. The war's conclusion—or continuation—will also test the limits of military power in achieving lasting peace without political agreements and trusted partners, while oil price pressures create international urgency for conflict resolution.

What's next

Netanyahu is widely expected to bring forward elections due later this year to leverage the current moment
Lt Gen Eyal Zamir has indicated that disarming Hezbollah "will take considerable time," requiring "persistence and patience"
Senior military officials are considering a ground invasion across a large swathe of Lebanese territory as one option
Israel may continue fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon even if Washington calls an end to the Iran campaign
Netanyahu has suggested Israel could withdraw from active operations and wait for Iran's internal pressures to potentially cause regime change over time

Read full article from source: BBC